By Alice Mosley, HANC Board

Muni faces the largest budget deficit in its history, according to the SFMTA. As of July 2026 the budget gap will be $307 million. There are multiple reasons for this crisis:  One-time pandemic relief funding has ended, state and federal funding has disappeared, and weekday ridership has not returned to its pre-pandemic levels.

However, Muni riders may be able to breathe a sigh of relief. BART and Bay Area transit riders may be able to avoid draconian cuts which have specified up to 15 BART station closures, elimination of 20 lower-ridership bus lines, reductions in frequency down to hourly service and shutting down at 9 pm.

A regional measure can help fund Bay Area transit in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, as well as San Francisco, including BART, Caltrain, Sam Trans, AC Transit and other transit agencies. It would be based on a sales tax of 1% and allocate additional millions to help Muni survive and thrive. Called Connect Bay Area, advocates and political leaders in Oakland celebrated the gathering of more than the 186,000 signatures required (more than 305,000) by volunteers and paid signature gatherers.

Public transport advocates in San Francisco have formed a coalition called Muni Now Muni Forever (MNMF) and proposed a new and fairer way of raising funds for Muni, based on the research of San Francisco Transit Riders. They have worked with the SFMTA, the SF Mayor’s Office, and the SF Board of Supervisors. Petition gatherers have also obtained adequate signatures for the local measure to go on the ballot this November.

This local ballot measure offers the most promising feature of the deal reached with the Mayor’s Office. It would introduce a newer and far more equitable Variable Rate Parcel Tax. Instead of a flat rate parcel tax, as originally proposed, which obliges small home and condo owners to pay the same amount as owners of mansions in Pacific Heights and large downtown office buildings (and has up to now been the practice in San Francisco), it would be based on square footage. This progressive form of tax, based on square footage, is new to San Francisco, but has already been implemented in many counties around the state.

Under this progressive parcel tax, all properties under 3,000 square feet would be charged the minimum $129 per year.  This covers approximately 85% of residences in San Francisco. The maximum pass-through to tenants would be capped at $65/year. Commercial rates will be different, rising to a ceiling of $400,000 for the largest buildings (Muni Now Muni Forever advocated a higher ceiling, or even no ceiling).

Now we need to make sure it passes! There are many challenges facing the campaign:

There is anti-tax sentiment abroad in the land especially, as well as naysayers about Muni (just glance at NextDoor). They deny the potential impact of the budget crisis and deplore what they call waste and/or fraud by Muni and its “overpaid” employees. They sometimes blame the shortfall on fare dodgers. Many of these red herrings can be refuted: For example, fares cover only a small fraction of the cost of Muni services, estimated at up to 15%. Public transportation services in major cities throughout the world are subsidized, usually by national and municipal governments. This is likewise the case for motorists, who often think that, by paying for fuel, they have covered the cost of their transportation. But motorists do not usually pay for their own roads (unless as in the case Calum’s Road [https://coast.scot/stories/calums-road-on-raasay/], they go out with a shovel and a wheelbarrow and build their own!). Even the maintenance of street parking spaces costs many thousands to pave, maintain, sweep, fix potholes, and regulate. On top of that, there have been tax cuts to “petro” corporations at the expense of the CAP and Invest program which had been earmarked for funding upgrades to the N-Judah, K-Ingleside and Central Subway.

We need more positive advocacy for the ballot measures. Friends of Muni (including anyone who rides the bus or who doesn’t want increased traffic congestion) should gather together to raise the issues and persuade voters to approve these two measures to rescue and improve Muni and other transit providers around the Bay.